Who Will It Be This Year?
>> Saturday, May 10, 2008
By: Mo Noorali
Football Review Daily
Since the 1998 NFL Draft, a team that finished with a record in the bottom 10 of the league the previous season, and had a pick in the top 10 has gone on to make the playoffs the season after being in the bottom 10. Some people do not believe in the concept of parity that has been thrown around by NFL analysts for the better part of the last decade, but this stat shows that parity does indeed exist. Let’s take a look at the last 10 occurrences of this phenomenon, followed by a look at who will be able to pull it off this year, and continue the trend.
1998 – Arizona Cardinals, Andre Wadsworth, DE (3rd Overall Pick)
1999 – Indianapolis Colts, Edgerrin James, RB (4th Overall Pick), St. Louis Rams, Torry Holt, WR (6th Overall Pick), Detroit Lions, Chris Claiborne, LB (9th Overall Pick) …The Redskins also took Champ Bailey with the 7th Overall Pick (and made the playoffs), but they had the 11th worst record the year prior, and traded up to the 7th Pick.
2000 – Philadelphia Eagles, Corey Simon, DT (6th Overall Pick) …The Ravens also made the playoffs that year, and had two top picks (Jamal Lewis and Travis Taylor), but similar to the Redskins, they finished with the 15th worst record the year before, and acquired the top 10 picks through trades.
2001 – New England Patriots, Richard Seymour, DT (6th Overall Pick), San Francisco 49ers, Andre Carter, DE (7th Overall Pick*), Chicago Bears, David Terrell, WR (8th Overall Pick)
2002 – Indianapolis Colts, Dwight Freeney, DE (11th Overall Pick**)
2003 – Dallas Cowboys, Terrence Newman, CB (5th Overall Pick), Carolina Panthers, Jordan Gross, OT (8th Overall Pick), Baltimore Ravens, Terrell Suggs, LB (10th Overall Pick)
2004 – Atlanta Falcons, DeAngelo Hall, CB (8th Overall Pick)
2005 – Chicago Bears, Cedric Benson, RB (4th Overall Pick), Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Cadillac Williams, RB (5th Overall Pick), Washington Redskins, Carlos Rodgers, CB (9th Overall Pick)
2006 – New Orleans Saints, Reggie Bush, RB (2nd Overall Pick), New York Jets, D’Brickashaw Ferguson, OT (4th Overall Pick)
2007 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Gaines Adams, DE (4th Overall Pick), Washington Redskins, LaRon Landry S (6th Overall Pick
[Note]
*The 49ers originally had the 9th worst record before making the Andre Carter pick, and they traded up to the 7th pick.
**Dwight Freeney was the 11th pick, but the year before the Colts did have one of the 10 worst records in the NFL, but received the 11th pick in the draft because the expansion Houston Texans received the 1st overall pick.
It seems like this is more than a coincidence. It looks like this trend will continue for years and years, and it is definitely good for the game, as fans from all over the country have hope that their team can go from a seller dweller to a team in contention in just one years time.
2008 NFL Draft Top 10 Picks
1) Miami Dolphins, Jake Long, OT
2) St. Louis Rams, Chris Long, DE
3) Atlanta Falcons, Matt Ryan, QB
4) Oakland Raiders, Darren McFadden, RB
5) Kansas City Chiefs, Glenn Dorsey, DT
6) New York Jets, Vernon Gholston, DE/LB
7) New Orleans Saints, Sedrick Ellis, DT
8) Jacksonville Jaguars, Derrick Harvey, DE
9) Cincinnati Bengals, Keith Rivers, LB
10) New England Patriots, Jerod Mayo, LB
First of all, New England and Jacksonville don’t qualify, since both of them made the playoffs last year. It looks like the New Orleans Saints will be the team that continues the trend this year. They had a number of injuries last year that derailed their season, and got off to a very slow start. Look for them to recover this year, as Sedrick Ellis will fill a big need for them at defensive tackle and be a starter from day one. The Chiefs and Jets will also be very much improved, but they may find it harder to make the playoffs in the more competitive AFC, whereas the Saints will be guaranteed a playoff spot with 10 wins, and could possibly sneak in with 9.
