Money for Nothing and Your Cleats for Free

By: Scott Rogers
Football Review Daily

Being the worst team in the NFL is bad enough. No one went through last season without poking fun at the Dolphins, especially the ill-fated Ricky Williams comeback. Not only does your fan base become agitated, but your talented players feel like seniors at the freshman dance. So as a reward, you get the first pick in the NFL Draft. Exciting? Yes. Getting a great college player? Yes. Getting a great NFL player? Possibly. Spending some money? Absolutely.

The first pick in the NFL Draft can be a blessing and a curse. For Jake Long, the blessing comes in the form of $30+ million guaranteed. For the Dolphins, a Courtney Brown-esque curse? Time will only tell.

Cade Massey and Richard Thaler highlighted this phenomenon in “The Loser’s Curse”, whose subtitle should have been that players drafted in the first round have as good of a chance as making it to the pro bowl (9%) as they do never starting a single game (8%). This study is a must read for any football junkie. But how can we predict which group our pick will land in?

For one, it is very complicated to analyze with a formula. A player’s impact at a skill position is easy to see. But what about a defensive tackle? A starting guard? It becomes a bit murky. The easiest way to assign a value to each pick is the NFL Draft chart that teams use when trading. We would also need to take into account the average amount of guaranteed money doled out to each spot over the past 4 years. As you can see, with the variables we will be adding, this could get extremely complicated.

The easiest way to look at it is by comparing guaranteed money. Salaries are available for the average fan to see. Looking at only guaranteed money, Long and Matt Ryan are both around $35 million in guaranteed salary. This type of investment is rarely given to the best players. Larry Fitzgerald renegotiated his contract this off-season and got $30 million guaranteed. Alan Faneca got $21 million guaranteed. These two guys have been to multiple pro bowls and Faneca is consistently one of the best lineman in the game. Something has to give.

From a finance standpoint, giving a proven player a lot of money upfront carries a small risk. Giving a rookie, who may not even start right away, a bigger bonus carries exponentially greater risk. But what is a bad team to do? Fans do not want to hear fiscal responsibility and risk reduction in a $6 billion dollar industry. In the end all fans care about is wins, which if the team had any, then they wouldn’t be in this spot in the first place.

Scott Rogers will report on the economic state of the NFL as well as the latest trends in performance training.

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Highsmith Looking to Impress in Arizona

By: Floyd Randolph
Football Review Daily

As the final seconds ticked off the 2008 NFL Draft clock, most players who had been passed over in the earlier portion of the draft finally began hearing their names being called in the latter half, yet one thing was left unsettled – LB Ali Highsmith’s name was still out there. A surefire first round pick only a couple months ago, his stock had severely slipped, and as the final picks were announced his name was still left on the board.

Highsmith became the victim of a poor combine, tallying forty yard dash times in the low fives and not showing the explosive nature he showed back at LSU where he was once rated as one of the premier linebackers in the nation. Highsmith had a monster 2007 college season where he racked in 101 tackles, recorded three sacks and two forced fumbles; after the season was over, Highsmith was rated near the top of every draft board in terms of linebackers.

Highsmith, known for his physical play has also been praised for his knack of being in the right place at the right time – he is the type that won’t go down until the whistle is blown. This is the type of characteristic that is far too often ignored on draft day – Ali is not only a gifted athlete, but rather a highly intelligent football player with the tools defensive coordinators drool over once they see his productivity in their system.

Now with the dust settling, Ali is ready to make his mark in the league. Highsmith signed a two-year rookie free agent contract with Cardinals soon after draft day and will be looked upon as one of the few potential undrafted impact players. He’s been given a second chance to make his mark, and after seeing how productive Ali is on the field, it’s only a matter of time before those scouts who erased his name off of their draft boards will regret their passing of not only a gifted athlete, but rather a true football player with a relentless passion for the game.

*****
SI.com's NFL Draft Film Room compiled a highlight reel from the Highsmith's collegiate career.

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Who Will It Be This Year?

By: Mo Noorali
Football Review Daily

Since the 1998 NFL Draft, a team that finished with a record in the bottom 10 of the league the previous season, and had a pick in the top 10 has gone on to make the playoffs the season after being in the bottom 10. Some people do not believe in the concept of parity that has been thrown around by NFL analysts for the better part of the last decade, but this stat shows that parity does indeed exist. Let’s take a look at the last 10 occurrences of this phenomenon, followed by a look at who will be able to pull it off this year, and continue the trend.

1998 – Arizona Cardinals, Andre Wadsworth, DE (3rd Overall Pick)

1999 – Indianapolis Colts, Edgerrin James, RB (4th Overall Pick), St. Louis Rams, Torry Holt, WR (6th Overall Pick), Detroit Lions, Chris Claiborne, LB (9th Overall Pick) …The Redskins also took Champ Bailey with the 7th Overall Pick (and made the playoffs), but they had the 11th worst record the year prior, and traded up to the 7th Pick.

2000 – Philadelphia Eagles, Corey Simon, DT (6th Overall Pick) …The Ravens also made the playoffs that year, and had two top picks (Jamal Lewis and Travis Taylor), but similar to the Redskins, they finished with the 15th worst record the year before, and acquired the top 10 picks through trades.

2001 – New England Patriots, Richard Seymour, DT (6th Overall Pick), San Francisco 49ers, Andre Carter, DE (7th Overall Pick*), Chicago Bears, David Terrell, WR (8th Overall Pick)

2002 – Indianapolis Colts, Dwight Freeney, DE (11th Overall Pick**)

2003 – Dallas Cowboys, Terrence Newman, CB (5th Overall Pick), Carolina Panthers, Jordan Gross, OT (8th Overall Pick), Baltimore Ravens, Terrell Suggs, LB (10th Overall Pick)

2004 – Atlanta Falcons, DeAngelo Hall, CB (8th Overall Pick)

2005 – Chicago Bears, Cedric Benson, RB (4th Overall Pick), Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Cadillac Williams, RB (5th Overall Pick), Washington Redskins, Carlos Rodgers, CB (9th Overall Pick)

2006 – New Orleans Saints, Reggie Bush, RB (2nd Overall Pick), New York Jets, D’Brickashaw Ferguson, OT (4th Overall Pick)

2007 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Gaines Adams, DE (4th Overall Pick), Washington Redskins, LaRon Landry S (6th Overall Pick

[Note]

*The 49ers originally had the 9th worst record before making the Andre Carter pick, and they traded up to the 7th pick.

**Dwight Freeney was the 11th pick, but the year before the Colts did have one of the 10 worst records in the NFL, but received the 11th pick in the draft because the expansion Houston Texans received the 1st overall pick.

***Looking to 2008***
It seems like this is more than a coincidence. It looks like this trend will continue for years and years, and it is definitely good for the game, as fans from all over the country have hope that their team can go from a seller dweller to a team in contention in just one years time.

2008 NFL Draft Top 10 Picks

1) Miami Dolphins, Jake Long, OT
2) St. Louis Rams, Chris Long, DE
3) Atlanta Falcons, Matt Ryan, QB
4) Oakland Raiders, Darren McFadden, RB
5) Kansas City Chiefs, Glenn Dorsey, DT
6) New York Jets, Vernon Gholston, DE/LB
7) New Orleans Saints, Sedrick Ellis, DT
8) Jacksonville Jaguars, Derrick Harvey, DE
9) Cincinnati Bengals, Keith Rivers, LB
10) New England Patriots, Jerod Mayo, LB

First of all, New England and Jacksonville don’t qualify, since both of them made the playoffs last year. It looks like the New Orleans Saints will be the team that continues the trend this year. They had a number of injuries last year that derailed their season, and got off to a very slow start. Look for them to recover this year, as Sedrick Ellis will fill a big need for them at defensive tackle and be a starter from day one. The Chiefs and Jets will also be very much improved, but they may find it harder to make the playoffs in the more competitive AFC, whereas the Saints will be guaranteed a playoff spot with 10 wins, and could possibly sneak in with 9.

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Spotlight on Kenny Iwebema

The Arizona Cardinals did not have to look far when searching for information on DE Kenny Iwebema who they selected with the 116th overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft. Iwebema was one of three DE taken by the Cardinals. Calais Campbell (Miami) went off the board in the second round, Iwebema in the fourth, and Chris Harrington (Texas A&M) went in round six.

Iwebema's defensive line coach at the University of Iowa up until his junior season is current Arizona Cardinals defensive line coach Ron Aiken. Aiken spent eight seasons with the Iowa Hawkeyes before moving to the NFL to join head coach Ken Whisenhunt’s coaching staff in 2007. Aiken recruited the defensive end while with the Hawkeyes.

Known for his strength off the edge and ability to contain the running game, Iwebama's technique will be fine tuned under the tutelage of coach Aiken. In his final three collegiate seasons, Iwebema, who played on the right, collected a total of 13.5 sacks. 2005 ended up being his most prolific season statistically. He finished with 32 solo tackles, seven sacks, ten tackles for loss, two forced fumbles, and two blocked kicks.

SI.com's NFL Draft Film Room compiled a highlight reel from the defensive end's collegiate career.

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