Adrian Peterson Aims for 2,000…Can He Do It? (Part II)

By: Mo Noorali
Football Review Daily

Read Part I: The 5 RBs in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards

Now, let’s look at what Adrian Peterson’s chances are of eclipsing the 2,000 yard mark. The Tavaris factor can be thrown out the window, since history is showing us that the worse the passing offense (3 of the 5 2,000 yard rushers were on a team that was last or 2nd last in the league in passing yards), the more yards for Peterson. In other words, greatness finds ways to get their yards, even if the defense knows its coming. Another thing Peterson has going for him is the fact that he has a great defense backing him, as did four of the five previous 2,000 yard rushers (with Barry Sanders being the exception). Having a good defense helps because they force three and outs, and help the offense get more possessions, which leads to more potential carries for the back (in the Lions case, they just let the other team score as quickly as possible, and Barry got his chances that way).

The Vikings should also be good enough to (at least) land in the middle of the pack in points scored, as have the other five teams of the previous 2,000 yard rushers. Also similar to all the teams but the 1998 Broncos, the Vikings will probably have a record around 9-7 or 10-6. Another similarity between AD and four of the five players to previously accomplish the feat is that he is known as an “upright runner” (all the others were except for Sanders). On that note, some feel that Peterson being an upright runner leaves him susceptible to big hits from on-coming linebackers and safeties, which will lead to him getting injured. Though it is a fact Adrian has not had a completely healthy season since his senior year in HS, it looked like he was going to make it last year, until a fluke of an injury. If Peterson stays healthy all year will it be enough?

History tells us that Chester Taylor’s presence will not stop Peterson since all five current members of the 2,000 yard club played on teams that were either 1st or 2nd in the league in rushing, and all five allowed their teammates to pick up at least 400 yards. It is possible that Chester gets more than that, but he should not get many more than that, he should get about 100 carries, and at a generous 4.5 yards per carry, he would yield 450 yards on the season. The carries though will be Peterson’s downfall. There is no way the Vikings will let him carry the ball more than 300 times. OJ Simpson had the least carries of the five, at 332 to reach the feat.

Even if we were to bump Peterson’s average of 5.6 yards per carry last year to 6.2 this year (which would be higher than any of the other 2,000 yard rushers), at 300 carries, that is still going to leave him 140 yards short of the mark. For those of you that think if he gets close enough, the Vikings will increase his load so that he can reach the mark, think again. There are too many other factors, such as potential rest in the final game for the playoffs, the track record of 2,000 yard rushers in the following season (there has always been a considerable drop off the next season), and the fact that they would choose his future health over a potentially historic season.

The truth is that, the way the NFL is constructed right now; there might not ever be another 2,000 yard rusher. Teams are starting to favor the two-back system more and more, and the health risks of giving one guy that big of a load (to get all the way to 2,000 yards) outweigh everything else. With that said, Peterson does have a chance to do it down the line, since the NFL could be changing very soon. It has been reported that in the new CBA a 17th regular season could be added, which could give Peterson a chance, but until that happens, the chances of another 2,000 yard rusher are pretty slim.

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Adrian Peterson Aims for 2,000…Can He Do It? (Part I)

By: Mo Noorali
Football Review Daily

Adrian Peterson excited Vikings fans and fantasy owners alike earlier this off-season when he stated that he will rush for 2,000 yards this season. Early last season, it seemed as if AD was going to pull off the feat in his rookie year, but eight and nine man fronts along with a knee injury prevented that from happening. The Vikings still have their superb offensive line intact, and are expecting Tavaris Jackson to make a big improvement in his second full year as a starter. Adrian Peterson has many obstacles in his way to reaching 2,000 yards though, including but not limited to Jackson’s inefficiency, staying healthy, and sharing the load with Chester Taylor. Along with all those factors is the fact that only five running backs in the history of the NFL have ever rushed for over 2,000 yards. Let’s take a moment to look over those five historic seasons before making any predictions for Peterson in 2008.

OJ Simpson – 1973 – 2,003 Yards

Let’s not forget that OJ did it (yes, I did just use those three words together) in just 14 games because that was how many they played per season back then. It took him 332 carries to get his total for the season, which resulted in an average of 6.0 yards per carry. It should be noted that Simpson only had one “horrible” game, in which he went for 55 yards on 14 carries. He had another one in which he was “average” in which he totaled 79 yards on 20 carries. His other 12 games, he was either at or over 99 yards…including 11 100+ yard games, six 150+ yard games, and three 200+ yard games, along with his dazzling opening week game of 250 yards. The Buffalo Bills as a team went 9-5 on the season (missed the playoffs), had the 15th ranked offense out of 26 teams, and the 10th ranked defense, points wise. Yards wise, the Bills were ranked 10th offensively and 14th defensively. The Bills ranked last in passing offense with a total of 997 yards on the season, and predictably finished 1st in the league in rushing yards, with 3,088 yards on the ground for the season.

Eric Dickerson – 1984 – 2,105 Yards

Dickerson, unlike Simpson, accomplished the feat in 16 games; therefore, his per game average was not as high (131.6 for Dickerson to Simpson’s 143.1). Dickerson, however, still holds the single season record for rushing yards in a season. He also carried the ball quite a few more times than Simpson, 379, and had a yard per carry average of 5.6. A glance at Dickerson’s game logs from 1984 show that he had a couple of very bad games and was still able to rush for over 2,000 yards (he had games of 49 and 39 yards). In his other 14 games though, Dickerson went for 98 or more in 13 of them, topping out at 215. He actually rushed for 215 in the game in which he broke Simpson’s record (the 15th game of the season). The St. Louis Rams as a team went 10-6 on the season (also missed the playoffs), had the 12th best offense out of 28 teams, and the 13th best defense, when looking at points. They were ranked 21st in offense and 14th in defense when looking at how many yards they gained and allowed. The Rams were 27th in passing offense with a total of 2,142 and 2nd in rushing yards, with 2,864 yards on the season.

Barry Sanders – 1997 – 2,053 Yards

Sanders famously started out the season with 2 sub 100 yard games (33 and 20), and finished it with 14 straight 100 yard games (which is still a single season record). It took him 335 carries to reach his total, and Sanders averaged 6.1 yards per carry, the highest among all 2,000 yard rushers. Along with his 14 100 yard games, Sanders mixed in five games of at least 150 yards, including two 200 yard games, topping out at 216. In 1997, the Detroit Lions were 9-7 and made the playoffs as a wild-card team (remember that there were no wild-cards when Dickerson and Simpson accomplished their feats), losing in the 1st round to the Tampa Bay Bucs. They scored the 4th most points in the league (out of 30 teams), and gained the 2nd most yards. The Lions were 21st in the league in points allowed, and 14th in the league in yards allowed. They were ranked 12th in the league in passing offense with a total of 3,334 yards and 2nd in rushing yards with 2,464 yards.

Terrell Davis – 1998 – 2,008 Yards

Davis enjoyed his 4th and final great season in 1998 eclipsing the 2,000 yard mark in 392 carries, with an average of 5.1 yards per carry. He had 11 games of 100 yards or more, along with five games of 150 plus yards, and one 200 yard game, his season high of 208. Of all the 2,000 yard rushers, Davis’ team enjoyed the most success going 14-2 in the regular season, and winning the Super Bowl. In the playoffs he actually rushed 78 times for a total of 468 yards, so it could be argued that he truly is the record for most rushing yards in a season, but that’s an argument we’ll let Davis and Dickerson decide. The Broncos, coming off a Super Bowl the year before, finished 2nd in the league (out of 30 teams) in points scored and 3rd in the league in yards gained. The defense allowed the 9th fewest points in the league that year, and the 11th fewest yards. The Broncos were 7th in the league in passing offense with 3.624 yards (some guy named Elway played behind center that year), and 2nd in the league in rushing offense with a total of 2.468 yards.

Jamal Lewis – 2003 – 2,066 Yards

The 5th and most recent member of the 2,000 yard club is Jamal Lewis. He reached his total in 387 carries, at an average of 5.3 yards per carry. Lewis gained a ridiculous amount (500) of those yards against his current team, the Cleveland Browns, including a then record-breaking 295 yards in week 2. Lewis crossed the century mark 12 times, but only had three 150 yard games and two 200 yard games (both against the aforementioned Browns). The thing that helped Lewis the most was his consistency, as his lowest total on the season was 68 yards. That season, the Baltimore Ravens went 10-6, made the playoffs, and lost to the Titans in the 1st round. They scored the 9th (out of 32 teams) most points in the league, and allowed the 6th fewest. The Ravens gained the 21st most yards, but were able to overcome that by allowing the 3rd least yards in the league. They were ranked last in the league in passing offense, gaining a total of 2,255 yards through the air, but finished 1st in rushing yards with 2,674.

So, now that the history lesson is complete, can Adrian Peterson rush for 2,000 yards?
Find out tomorrow in part II of my report.

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