Adrian Peterson Aims for 2,000…Can He Do It? (Part II)

By: Mo Noorali
Football Review Daily

Read Part I: The 5 RBs in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards

Now, let’s look at what Adrian Peterson’s chances are of eclipsing the 2,000 yard mark. The Tavaris factor can be thrown out the window, since history is showing us that the worse the passing offense (3 of the 5 2,000 yard rushers were on a team that was last or 2nd last in the league in passing yards), the more yards for Peterson. In other words, greatness finds ways to get their yards, even if the defense knows its coming. Another thing Peterson has going for him is the fact that he has a great defense backing him, as did four of the five previous 2,000 yard rushers (with Barry Sanders being the exception). Having a good defense helps because they force three and outs, and help the offense get more possessions, which leads to more potential carries for the back (in the Lions case, they just let the other team score as quickly as possible, and Barry got his chances that way).

The Vikings should also be good enough to (at least) land in the middle of the pack in points scored, as have the other five teams of the previous 2,000 yard rushers. Also similar to all the teams but the 1998 Broncos, the Vikings will probably have a record around 9-7 or 10-6. Another similarity between AD and four of the five players to previously accomplish the feat is that he is known as an “upright runner” (all the others were except for Sanders). On that note, some feel that Peterson being an upright runner leaves him susceptible to big hits from on-coming linebackers and safeties, which will lead to him getting injured. Though it is a fact Adrian has not had a completely healthy season since his senior year in HS, it looked like he was going to make it last year, until a fluke of an injury. If Peterson stays healthy all year will it be enough?

History tells us that Chester Taylor’s presence will not stop Peterson since all five current members of the 2,000 yard club played on teams that were either 1st or 2nd in the league in rushing, and all five allowed their teammates to pick up at least 400 yards. It is possible that Chester gets more than that, but he should not get many more than that, he should get about 100 carries, and at a generous 4.5 yards per carry, he would yield 450 yards on the season. The carries though will be Peterson’s downfall. There is no way the Vikings will let him carry the ball more than 300 times. OJ Simpson had the least carries of the five, at 332 to reach the feat.

Even if we were to bump Peterson’s average of 5.6 yards per carry last year to 6.2 this year (which would be higher than any of the other 2,000 yard rushers), at 300 carries, that is still going to leave him 140 yards short of the mark. For those of you that think if he gets close enough, the Vikings will increase his load so that he can reach the mark, think again. There are too many other factors, such as potential rest in the final game for the playoffs, the track record of 2,000 yard rushers in the following season (there has always been a considerable drop off the next season), and the fact that they would choose his future health over a potentially historic season.

The truth is that, the way the NFL is constructed right now; there might not ever be another 2,000 yard rusher. Teams are starting to favor the two-back system more and more, and the health risks of giving one guy that big of a load (to get all the way to 2,000 yards) outweigh everything else. With that said, Peterson does have a chance to do it down the line, since the NFL could be changing very soon. It has been reported that in the new CBA a 17th regular season could be added, which could give Peterson a chance, but until that happens, the chances of another 2,000 yard rusher are pretty slim.